Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Beaten Down by RAND and ATRM

The portfolio finished up 0.30% today even though RAND was down more than 12% and ATRM was down over 8% on no news. Does someone know something I don't? I wonder. EMVL and TAIT also dragged down the portfolio.

COH performed well again up over 2%. Also, all mutual funds helped pull the weight of the portfolio north of zero.

I plan on some re balancing and elimination of some stocks as well as taking some profits on others. But where to put them? I think I would rather hold cash than an investment that I believe has reached its ceiling.

Viva Las Vegas- Weekly Summary

Sorry about the lack of a weekly summary as I was on a little R&R this past weekend in Las Vegas. Not much to report portfolio wise, as it was flat for the week, losing less than $20. With all the major indices down for the week, the portfolio achieved significant out performance.

ATRM suffered a large loss on no news on Friday so hopefully that will rebound today (Monday). Otherwise, there hasnt been much action on my micro caps. GYI has moved up nicely into the low 50's and may be a possible sell candidate at this point.

Friday, February 9, 2007

Quick Update

The portfolio finished Thursday down slightly 0.07% better than all the major indexes. Tomorrow will be a release from the Fed so I'm expecting some serious movement in the markets depending on the news.

Tuesday, February 6, 2007

Stock Day!

The portfolio gained 0.46% today fueled mostly by big gains in some of my stocks with most issues heading higher. MRVC, PFSW, RAND, and TOA all had multi percentage gains. ARTX has continued to sink and has now given up most of its 15% of gains.

Energy was slightly lower today which mostly results for the lackluster mutual fund performance. In the coming days, I'll be selling more assets from the funds to have cash on hand to plow into existing stocks at buying opportunities or new issues that come to my attention.

Monday, February 5, 2007

TAIT Drop

The portfolio finished the day down 0.09% ($215), mostly because of TAIT and ARTX. There was no news on either stock so i would expect to see them back up tomorrow. It looks like someone entered a sizable market sell order for TAIT which dropped the price down. I don't understand the logic in entering market orders in low liquidity stocks. People just want to lose money I guess.

Saturday, February 3, 2007

Weekly Summary

The portfolio had its best week ever, gaining 2.4% ($5,826.89). For the month of January, it was up 3.6%. Strong showings from GYI, COH, JOB, and RAND helped propel the portfolio. The mutual funds also posted nice gains.

Thursday, February 1, 2007

Crappy PXPL

PXPL was down another 8.54% today on no news. Obviously there is news on the stock but only privy people know it. Anyways, it was a good day overall as the portfolio crossed the $250k mark again ( I reached it last spring before a down payment for a house). Up 0.68 ($1699.09). Today was the first day in awhile where the funds pulled me up. Still, the S&P has been on a tear lately and was up 0.54%.

IV Calc

Warren Buffett Intrinsic Value Formula (?)
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Buffett's Value Formula (?)

Warren Buffett hasn't exactly published his formula for what he calls the intrinsic value of a company, but he has dropped a number of hints. He apparently multiplies estimated future earnings by a confidence margin between zero and a hundred percent (a bird in the bush being worth 0.5 birds in the hand, and all that; bush birds are the earnings you hope for, and hand birds are the earnings you're confident will materialize). He then compares these probable earnings with something he has total confidence in, by using a U.S. treasury yield as his discount rate. In calculator form it looks like this:

 

Earnings
Earnings per share (last 12 months): $
Growth Assumptions
Earnings are expected to grow at a rate of % annually
for the next years,
before leveling off to an annual growth rate of % thereafter.
Confidence Margin
How confident are you that these expected future earnings will really materialize?   %
Discount Rate
Best available return that you have 100% confidence in (like a Treasury bond):   %
 
Results
Stock Value per share: $

 

       This calculator doesn't use fancier math than the original one did. Its advantage is that it forces you to be explicit about your earnings expectations. It also automatically provides you with a hard-headed investment strategy: always invest in government bonds, unless you can find something else you are confident will yield more cash.

One other hint that Buffett has dropped over the years is that he can estimate value in his head in about five seconds; so whatever he does he keeps it simple, slugger.

 

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