Monday, November 20, 2006

Disclaimer

Important Disclaimer - Don't buy any of the stocks I buy, without doing your own due diligence and satisfying yourself that these are investments you want to own, without any reliance on any information contained in this blog.
Here's why:
This blog is for my own purpose, not to disseminate stock picks. Please do not mimick my decisions unless you conduct you own research first.

I don't do overly extensive due diligence on the stocks that I own. I don't have the time nor the energy to vigorously research each company. Typically, I look at a company's financial statements, key statistics and some news items about the company that I can find.

I am not responsible for misrepresented posts, any information I post incorrectly, or any typos that cause errors on my part or yours.

I use this blog as a personal journal where I can keep track of my investments and hopefully, teach people something along the way. However, more likely than not, it is you who will teach my something.

I won't tell you when I am about to buy or sell a stock. If I did, the extra competition for my order would reduce my profits. I don't want that.

Some stocks I own are especially volatile. Some of my investments are in microcap stocks with little or no analyst following. These stock are prone to wild swings in prices and often have huge ask/bid spreads. Without even considering other valuation issues, selling or buying on the wrong side of the bid/ask at the wrong time, can result in large losses, sometimes doing serious damage to your portfolio.

Just because I own a stock does not mean I would buy it now. Some of the stocks that I may own may have significantly increased in price since I bought them. Hence, their potential for further returns may be limited. Alternatively, the good situation I thought I saw when buying may have deteriorated, or I may have mis-analyzed the situation, and I might just be trying to ride it out.

I may still talk positively about companies whose stock I'm in the process of selling. I try not to confuse the company with the value of its stock. Great companies (that includes great microcap companies too), can become too overpriced but that doesn't mean I don't still think they're great companies (even if over-priced). Alternatively, they may have reached a quantity in my portfolio that I'm no longer comfortable with, and am in the process of re-balancing.

Even doing exactly as I do (assuming you knew exactly what I was doing and when), your portfolio may still suffer large and serious losses.

Finally, you don't know me, or my motives. That should be reason enough.

Special thanks to StockCoach (Shadowtrader) and Small, Smaller, Smallest for the bulk of this disclaimer.

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IV Calc

Warren Buffett Intrinsic Value Formula (?)
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Buffett's Value Formula (?)

Warren Buffett hasn't exactly published his formula for what he calls the intrinsic value of a company, but he has dropped a number of hints. He apparently multiplies estimated future earnings by a confidence margin between zero and a hundred percent (a bird in the bush being worth 0.5 birds in the hand, and all that; bush birds are the earnings you hope for, and hand birds are the earnings you're confident will materialize). He then compares these probable earnings with something he has total confidence in, by using a U.S. treasury yield as his discount rate. In calculator form it looks like this:

 

Earnings
Earnings per share (last 12 months): $
Growth Assumptions
Earnings are expected to grow at a rate of % annually
for the next years,
before leveling off to an annual growth rate of % thereafter.
Confidence Margin
How confident are you that these expected future earnings will really materialize?   %
Discount Rate
Best available return that you have 100% confidence in (like a Treasury bond):   %
 
Results
Stock Value per share: $

 

       This calculator doesn't use fancier math than the original one did. Its advantage is that it forces you to be explicit about your earnings expectations. It also automatically provides you with a hard-headed investment strategy: always invest in government bonds, unless you can find something else you are confident will yield more cash.

One other hint that Buffett has dropped over the years is that he can estimate value in his head in about five seconds; so whatever he does he keeps it simple, slugger.

 

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DCF Calculator
P/E Ratio
P/S Ratio
PEG Ratio
Graham Formula
Dividend Discount
Buffett Formula (?)
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Also See
Valuation Formula