Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Decent Day

The portfolio finished the day up 0.48 but my stocks outperformed my funds yet again. The portfolio was up .70% at midday before the Fed announcement. The S&P at the time was barely at break even but after the announcement it shot up almost one percent while my portfolio barely budged. The indexes bested my performance by 15-20 basis points, mostly because of my funds.

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Top JOB Performance

JOB posted stellar quarterly numbers yesterday and the stock boosted 16%, at one point today it was up over 30%. Overall, the portfolio finished the day up 0.47%, slightly better than all major averages. My stock holdings handily outperformed my mutual funds, even with oil rising over a buck today.

Getty Images was up another 9% today. This stock has reached my sell zone and i plan to unload it on its next strong day. PXPL continues to vex me as it was down almost 8% for no reason. It has been extremely volatile lately.

Monday, January 29, 2007

Big Hole to Start the Week

The week started out poorly as TAIT, PXPL and RAND pulled me lower. TAIT was a large portion of my drop today as the portfolio finished down 0.09% while the Russell 2000 finished up 0.63%. I did do better than the S&P by two basis points and only slightly worse than the 1000.

Getty Images posted a solid quarter and beat estimates. It rose over 5% today and is up another 4% after hours. COH, MRVC and ARTX also helped out the portfolio.

Weekly Summary

For the week ending Jan. 26th, the portfolio finished up just 0.27%. It was a disappointing week given the advances most of my stocks had early in the week. I did however, manage to outperform the S&P by 86 basis points and the Russell 1000 by 77. I underperformed the 2000 by a few basis points. As of Friday, I know have just over $75,000 in individual stocks and $175,000 in mutual funds. I'm on schedule to have a 50/50 distribution by the end of the first quarter.

Thursday, January 25, 2007

PXPL?

PXPL has been extremely volatile the last couple of weeks and today was not different. The stock was down most of the day until a few minutes before market close when the it jumped more the 17% on no news. For the day, we were down 0.70%

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

SUNN-y Days

I started a position in SUNN today. Its a great net net play selling at80% of NCAV. Also, i had a limit for 1500 shares of PFSW at 1.10 which hit. My lower buy limits weren't reached. I got into a large position of TAIT. I think I'm a little late to this game but i think the stock has at least another dollar upside.

Overall, the portfolio finished up 0.70% which was not as good as the major averages but any up day is a good day i say!

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

OIL Finally Rebounds

The portfolio finished up 0.52% today thanks in large part to my energy fund and Fidelity Leveraged Company which has a 28% sector weighting in oil. My individual stocks did not far as well. ARTX continued to move and I added to BRNC with another 150 shares at $15.85 bringing my total to 450 shares, one of my largest holdings. EGR was also added to doubling my share total to 2000 at a cost basis of 1.44.

TOA finished down 6% today after announcing they were updating a joint venture in which they basically created an SPE with Deutche Bank. EMVL, formally EWEB, dropped 6% also on no news.

Coach announced earnings today that beat estimates and it also raised its forecast. However, the street didnt like the small decrease in its margins due to the fact that factory store sales outpaced regular store sales for the first time. Seems to me that Wall St. always focuses on the worst news of any earnings report. The stocks was down almost 3% at one point before rebounding to finish up slightly.

IV Calc

Warren Buffett Intrinsic Value Formula (?)
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Buffett's Value Formula (?)

Warren Buffett hasn't exactly published his formula for what he calls the intrinsic value of a company, but he has dropped a number of hints. He apparently multiplies estimated future earnings by a confidence margin between zero and a hundred percent (a bird in the bush being worth 0.5 birds in the hand, and all that; bush birds are the earnings you hope for, and hand birds are the earnings you're confident will materialize). He then compares these probable earnings with something he has total confidence in, by using a U.S. treasury yield as his discount rate. In calculator form it looks like this:

 

Earnings
Earnings per share (last 12 months): $
Growth Assumptions
Earnings are expected to grow at a rate of % annually
for the next years,
before leveling off to an annual growth rate of % thereafter.
Confidence Margin
How confident are you that these expected future earnings will really materialize?   %
Discount Rate
Best available return that you have 100% confidence in (like a Treasury bond):   %
 
Results
Stock Value per share: $

 

       This calculator doesn't use fancier math than the original one did. Its advantage is that it forces you to be explicit about your earnings expectations. It also automatically provides you with a hard-headed investment strategy: always invest in government bonds, unless you can find something else you are confident will yield more cash.

One other hint that Buffett has dropped over the years is that he can estimate value in his head in about five seconds; so whatever he does he keeps it simple, slugger.

 

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Valuation Formula