Intelligent Investments: Top JOB Performance

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Top JOB Performance

JOB posted stellar quarterly numbers yesterday and the stock boosted 16%, at one point today it was up over 30%. Overall, the portfolio finished the day up 0.47%, slightly better than all major averages. My stock holdings handily outperformed my mutual funds, even with oil rising over a buck today.

Getty Images was up another 9% today. This stock has reached my sell zone and i plan to unload it on its next strong day. PXPL continues to vex me as it was down almost 8% for no reason. It has been extremely volatile lately.

1 comment:

QUALITY STOCKS UNDER FOUR DOLLARS said...: Top job performance is dependant on lots of things.; January 3, 2013 at 12:36:00 PM PST

Buffett's Value Formula (?)

Warren Buffett hasn't exactly published his formula for what he calls the intrinsic value of a company, but he has dropped a number of hints. He apparently multiplies estimated future earnings by a confidence margin between zero and a hundred percent (a bird in the bush being worth 0.5 birds in the hand, and all that; bush birds are the earnings you hope for, and hand birds are the earnings you're confident will materialize). He then compares these probable earnings with something he has total confidence in, by using a U.S. treasury yield as his discount rate. In calculator form it looks like this:

This calculator doesn't use fancier math than the original one did. Its advantage is that it forces you to be explicit about your earnings expectations. It also automatically provides you with a hard-headed investment strategy: always invest in government bonds, unless you can find something else you are confident will yield more cash.

One other hint that Buffett has dropped over the years is that he can estimate value in his head in about five seconds; so whatever he does he keeps it simple, slugger.