Intelligent Investments: Weekly Summary

Monday, January 8, 2007

Weekly Summary

For the week, the portfolio started the year down 0.99% with a significant portion of that under performance coming from the energy sector plummeting this week. I have precleared many new microcaps and hope to sell my energy fund and some assets within other mutual funds to provide capital for new securities within the portfolio.

I have been receiving these spam emails at work with weird from addresses that state a certain pink sheet stock will jump by 10-50% over the next few days. I have been watching them and they do indeed jump shortly after receiving the email but then the following week, they plummet, usually to a level below what it originated at. I guess these people know they are going to acquire a block of the stock so they are spamming to try and gain a floor for when other investors initiate selling after the pop. Unethical to say the least.

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Buffett's Value Formula (?)

Warren Buffett hasn't exactly published his formula for what he calls the intrinsic value of a company, but he has dropped a number of hints. He apparently multiplies estimated future earnings by a confidence margin between zero and a hundred percent (a bird in the bush being worth 0.5 birds in the hand, and all that; bush birds are the earnings you hope for, and hand birds are the earnings you're confident will materialize). He then compares these probable earnings with something he has total confidence in, by using a U.S. treasury yield as his discount rate. In calculator form it looks like this:

This calculator doesn't use fancier math than the original one did. Its advantage is that it forces you to be explicit about your earnings expectations. It also automatically provides you with a hard-headed investment strategy: always invest in government bonds, unless you can find something else you are confident will yield more cash.

One other hint that Buffett has dropped over the years is that he can estimate value in his head in about five seconds; so whatever he does he keeps it simple, slugger.