Friday, December 22, 2006

Weekly Summary: Not Good

The portfolio for the week lost 1.66% (4,115.36). This was worse than most major indexes. Hopefully, the new year will reverse this trend. This is two weeks in a row of under performance. My new position of PXPL led the downward trend and is now down 10% from where I purchased it two weeks ago. There are a few bright spots like RAND, COH, and BUD which all bucked the trend and finished in positive territory for the week. Next week ill be away for Christmas vacation back east. Merry Christmas all!

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Increased Volatility

Over the past couple of weeks, the volatility of the micro-cap world has increased substantially. Normally, this would be a good thing because I could capitalize on news less jumps in my positions and repurchase them when they come back down but my job prevents me from this sort of opportunistic trading unfortunately.

The portfolio finished up 0.05% with my stocks pulling some the weight of my funds, mostly the energy fund (down 1.45%) and Fidelity Leveraged (down 0.58%) which is highly correlated to the price of oil. Coach was a big gainer today, at one point over 3.5% before settling around 2.48%.

Monday, December 18, 2006

Beat Down

Over the past several trading sessions, small cap stocks have fared poorly while large caps have performed at least partially well. This may just be cyclical or could be a new trend downward for small caps- we'll have to wait and see.

January is typically a very good month for small caps and micro caps in general. Whats known as the January Effect usually sees stellar returns in the smallest of market caps.

The portfolio pared back 0.90% ($2,244.06) on the day. Only the Russell 2000 did worse- by 45 basis points.

Started my journey to pass the second level of the CFA exam today. Im going to stick to the same routine I did last year for the first level since that seemed to do well for me.

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Mutual Fund Save

Without my mutual fund holdings, my portfolio would not have finished the day in positive territory. After yesterdays near breakeven, today I finished with a 0.38% gain ($939.30) even though the major indexes were up around .85%. A new position in PixelPlus was started today buying 1500 shares near the low for the day ($1.95). I missed my limits on PFSW and BCGI which have all spiked in recent days. I need a good day tomorrow to keep up my streak of beating the averages.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Broad Selloff

Despite big pops from ATRM and RAND, the portfolio had a broad sell off today shedding 0.38% ($951.65). The indexes were only slightly lower. The portfolio has some ground to makeup if it wants to continue the 4 week winning streak.

Monday, December 11, 2006

Slight Gain

The portfolio finished the day up 0.16% ($397.94). EGR, RAND, BUD and TOA were all up over 1%. EWEB was the biggest detractor losing 1.72% along with News Corp (-1.11%) which gave back some of its profits from Friday.

Saturday, December 9, 2006

Weekly Summary

For the week, the portfolio made another strong showing gaining 1.40% (+3,439.66) outperforming all indexes except the Russell 2000 which gained 1.46%. Strong showings from EWEB, STH, and FLVCX boosted the portfolio. However, most positions either gained a percentage or meandered around their value from last week. No real detractors in the portfolio to speak of which accounted for the strong showing for the week. Lets hope the portfolio does the same next week.

Thursday, December 7, 2006

So Close...

I was $10 from extending my win streak to 8. The portfolio finished flat (-$10) on the day. New position to report. I bought 500 shares of RAND at near the low on the day, $3.14. The stock fluctuated a lot at one point dropping 10% in a few minutes on no news, hence my reasoning for jumping into the stock. It then proceeding up and closed near3.40.

Wednesday, December 6, 2006

Seven Day Win Streak

The portfolio gained for the seventh day in a row, up 0.14% (+347.87) whereas all major indexes were down on the day. There wasn't much news on the day as investors wait for the key jobs report that will be released Friday. However, the ADP Macroeconomic Advisors employment report predicts employment rolls will have increased by 158,000, ahead of the 110,000 predicted by economists.

New holding to report. Today, I bought 500 shares of Paragon Technologies, PTG at 5.80. I have two other limit orders outstanding but they didn't reach my price.

Tuesday, December 5, 2006

Inflation worriers subsiding

The markets and government have been strongly worried about inflation, to the point where growth is currently being stifled in order to stop it. Numbers released today expose the fact that inflation fears are overblown and for the most part, we are done with Fed rate hikes. The Commerce Dept released wage and benefits figures showing a 2.3% increase, much slower than the 3.8% estimated figure. Productivity was also revised upwards for the 3rd quarter proving that the economy did better than most contend.

The portfolio gained 0.6% (+1,441.06) on the day extending my win streak and breaking the quarter-million mark. New holdings are ATRM [750 shares @3.23] and EGR [1000 shares at $1.65].

Monday, December 4, 2006

Broad Rally

Today the markets moved decidedly higher with 74% of all NYSE issues increasing and 65% of all NASDAQ's doing the same. This occurred mainly because of the BONY buyout of Mellon Financial Corp and a drop in oil prices.

The portfolio performed well but dragged a little due to the drop in the price of a barrel of oil. The portfolio is correlated to the price with the Fidelity Energy Fund and the Fidelity Leveraged Company mutual funds both highly correlated to oils moves. It finished the day up 0.77% (+1,877.31). vs. .89 and .91% for the S&P500 and Russell 1000 indexes, respectively.

A new position was started today in Aetrium Inc. which manufactures and designs electromagnetically equipment worldwide. The company is profitable and small at a market cap of $32.56M and an EPS of $0.30, giving it a trailing P/E of 10. It warned not long ago of a slowdown in chip orders from its two largest customers but after shares plunged 34%, I believe there is a larger slowdown already built in- thus the potential for an upside surprise.

Saturday, December 2, 2006

Weekly Summary

The portfolio finished the week up 0.26% with a distribution waiting on the Fidelity Intl fund, which will likely push the return up to 0.40%. Strong showings again from MHJ as well as TOA and DNA helped the portfolio minimize losses in a down day. The portfolio gained (at mimimum) $628.61 to finish at $244,595.06.

Currently, I am researching microcap stocks. I use the MSN deluxe screener and the yahoo screener the most. MSN I think is the best one- rare for me to say a microsoft product is the best. I also use the fidelity screener to confirm results.

What I look for:
Book value/shr vs. price
Low price/sales
Low price/book
Current ratio greater than 2.5
Growing revenue
Insider or Institutional buying
Low Float

IV Calc

Warren Buffett Intrinsic Value Formula (?)
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Buffett's Value Formula (?)

Warren Buffett hasn't exactly published his formula for what he calls the intrinsic value of a company, but he has dropped a number of hints. He apparently multiplies estimated future earnings by a confidence margin between zero and a hundred percent (a bird in the bush being worth 0.5 birds in the hand, and all that; bush birds are the earnings you hope for, and hand birds are the earnings you're confident will materialize). He then compares these probable earnings with something he has total confidence in, by using a U.S. treasury yield as his discount rate. In calculator form it looks like this:

 

Earnings
Earnings per share (last 12 months): $
Growth Assumptions
Earnings are expected to grow at a rate of % annually
for the next years,
before leveling off to an annual growth rate of % thereafter.
Confidence Margin
How confident are you that these expected future earnings will really materialize?   %
Discount Rate
Best available return that you have 100% confidence in (like a Treasury bond):   %
 
Results
Stock Value per share: $

 

       This calculator doesn't use fancier math than the original one did. Its advantage is that it forces you to be explicit about your earnings expectations. It also automatically provides you with a hard-headed investment strategy: always invest in government bonds, unless you can find something else you are confident will yield more cash.

One other hint that Buffett has dropped over the years is that he can estimate value in his head in about five seconds; so whatever he does he keeps it simple, slugger.

 

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Valuation Formula